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Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

The committee waited to make the determination of the trough date until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in March 2001.

For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the exact months of peaks and troughs.

The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.Based on this information, the committee concluded that the economy reached a trough in November.The NBER's practice has been that if economic activity is roughly flat at the end of a recession or expansion, the turning point is placed at the end of the flat period.Reinforcing the conclusion that the trough did not occur in December, two of the monthly indicators-personal income excluding transfers and the estimates of monthly real GDP-grew very rapidly in December, and the sales series grew as well.These considerations indicate that the trough occurred in September, October, or November.The committee concluded that this strong growth in the most comprehensive measure of economic activity essentially ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the fourth quarter.


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